Australian Business Finance in Late 2026 Changing Demand, Emerging Opportunities and What Lies Ahead.

Market insights | October 2026 | By Kel Marks

What the latest business lending, asset finance, vehicle sales and credit risk indicators mean for finance brokers, lenders and Australian business owners heading into 2027.

As we approach the end of 2026, Australian business finance demand appears to be changing rather than disappearing. Businesses are becoming more selective about investment, yet many continue to seek funding to manage cash flow, improve productivity and support growth. For brokers and lenders, the question is not simply whether the market is recovering, but where genuine demand is emerging and how to respond.

1. Finance demand: encouraging signals, but not a uniform recovery

Equifax September 2026 Business Market Pulse figures, reported in October, show SME business loan enquiries increasing 14% year on year, while overall business loan enquiries rose approximately 10.1%. Asset finance demand was 3.2% below September 2025, a notable improvement from the 12.7% annual decline recorded in August. Larger-business loan enquiries reportedly declined 11.4%.

Indicator	September 2026, year on year
SME business loan enquiries	+14.0%
All business loan enquiries	+10.1%
Asset finance demand	-3.2%
August asset finance demand (comparison)	-12.7%

These are enquiry measures, not approval or settlement volumes. They suggest improving activity in some categories without establishing a broad-based recovery. Smaller businesses may be seeking funding for contracts, working capital, replacement equipment or growth, while larger firms remain more selective about expenditure.

2. Payment behaviour: understanding the purpose of borrowing

CreditorWatch’s September 2026 Business Risk Index reported that 48% of invoices were paid on time, compared with 58% a year earlier. It also reported that 10.1% of invoices were more than 60 days overdue, versus 5.0% a year earlier; trade payment defaults rose 26.1% year on year, and ATO tax defaults in effect reached 37,577.

These indicators do not mean every business is under stress. They do reinforce the need to distinguish a profitable business bridging a temporary cash-flow gap from one relying on repeated borrowing to fund ongoing losses. Good advice starts with the reason for the borrowing, the underlying cash flow and a realistic repayment plan.

3. New vehicle sales: a changing purchase decision

Combined FCAI and Electric Vehicle Council reporting indicated 108,778 new vehicle deliveries in September 2026, up 1.8% year on year. Business deliveries were reported at approximately 39,209. Battery electric vehicle deliveries reached 26,287 and plug-in hybrids 10,072, with plug-in hybrids reportedly up 122.7% year on year. These combined totals differ from FCAI-only VFACTS figures because of differences in reporting coverage.

The Ford Ranger remained the leading individual model, with 5,062 deliveries, followed by the Toyota RAV4 (4,624), Tesla Model Y (4,476) and Toyota HiLux (4,455). The broader picture is mixed: vehicle sales remain substantial, but demand varies significantly by segment and powertrain.

A practical example: the cost of keeping an existing vehicle

Consider a business owner driving a 2023 Nissan Navara PRO-4X and spending approximately $180 each week on diesel. That is $9,360 per year before servicing, insurance, registration, tyres and finance costs. The owner is considering a 2026 Honda HR-V e:HEV RS Hybrid—not necessarily because the current vehicle has failed, but because its running costs are worth reassessing.

Using indicative combined fuel consumption of 8.1 L/100 km for the Navara and 4.3 L/100 km for the Honda, assumed diesel at $2.00/L and petrol at $1.90/L, the current spend implies approximately 57,778 km travelled annually. Holding that distance constant gives the following illustrative comparison:

Fuel cost comparison	Annual estimate
Navara: current actual spending	$9,360
Honda: official combined consumption	$4,721
Potential annual saving	$4,639
Honda: 5.4 L/100 km road-test scenario	$5,928
Saving in road-test scenario	$3,432

These are scenarios, not guaranteed savings: actual kilometres, traffic, fuel prices and vehicle consumption can differ substantially. The owner must also consider trade-in value, finance payout, new repayments, insurance, depreciation, servicing and whether a hybrid SUV can genuinely replace the ute’s towing, payload or off-road capability.

The broader lesson is commercially relevant: some business owners are shifting from “What will a new asset cost?” to “What does keeping my existing asset cost?” That question applies equally to trucks, manufacturing machinery, trade equipment and technology.

4. Where opportunities may emerge in asset finance

Commercial vehicles and trade equipment remain essential where replacement reduces downtime or supports new contracts. Manufacturing machinery and automation can improve throughput and productivity. Agricultural machinery can support seasonal and regional operations. Medical, professional and eligible IT equipment can help businesses deliver more with existing resources.

Not every equipment purchase will be suitable for finance, and software eligibility varies by lender. The strongest opportunity is to connect an asset’s measurable business benefit—capacity, revenue, reliability or lower operating costs—with a sustainable funding structure.

5. Business lending: more than expansion

Working capital facilities may help sound businesses bridge delayed receipts, inventory cycles and project expenditure. Expansion and acquisition finance can support growth where earnings and assumptions are credible. Refinancing may simplify arrangements or better align debt with asset life, although longer terms can increase total borrowing costs. Tax-related funding needs particular care: repeated arrears may signal a need for accounting or restructuring advice rather than another short-term facility.

6. What brokers can do now

Existing clients are often the most accessible source of meaningful conversations. A client who financed equipment several years ago may now need a replacement asset, working capital or a review of current facilities. Ask what is changing in the business, what is costing more to operate, what contracts are ahead and what investment is being deferred.

Brokers do not need to specialise in every lending category, but broader commercial awareness and strong referral relationships can help identify suitable options. Better workflows, client contact and follow-up also create capacity without necessarily adding headcount. Rising enquiries should be assessed alongside application quality, approvals and settlements.

7. Priorities for lenders and brokerage leaders

For lenders, BDMs and brokerage owners, a changing market calls for targeted market intelligence, broker education and consistent coaching. Track enquiry mix, approval rates, conversion, average deal size, turnaround times and arrears—not settlement volume alone. Help teams recognise changing borrower needs and maintain disciplined credit standards.

8. A useful year-end review for business owners

Before 2027, consider whether finance arrangements still fit the business; whether older assets are costing more than expected; whether customer payments and supplier commitments are manageable; whether planned growth is adequately funded; and whether technology or equipment investment could improve productivity. Sometimes better debtor collection or operational changes will deliver more value than additional borrowing.

Looking ahead to 2027

The latest indicators offer reasons for cautious optimism, not complacency. SME business finance enquiries are growing, asset finance demand is showing signs of stabilisation, and vehicle purchasing is evolving. Meanwhile, payment stress reminds us that the quality and purpose of borrowing matter.

The opportunity is not simply to wait for more enquiries. It is to understand where demand exists, why businesses are investing or borrowing, and how suitable funding can improve their position. The conversation is increasingly moving beyond purchase price to total ownership cost, productivity and cash flow.

Are you seeing confidence return in your market? What kinds of finance are your clients seeking as we approach 2027?

Sources and further reading

Equifax Australia, Business Market Pulse, September 2026; figures reported by Australian Broker and Broker Daily, 19–20 October 2026. https://equifax.com.au/business-enterprise/insights

Australian Broker, “Smaller firms chase working capital as big business loan demand falls,” 19 October 2026. https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/smaller-firms-chase-working-capital-as-big-business-loan-demand-falls-290170.aspx

Broker Daily, “Asset finance demand showing signs of recovery,” 20 October 2026. https://www.brokerdaily.au/lender/22146-asset-finance-demand-showing-signs-of-recovery

CreditorWatch, September 2026 Business Risk Index, 14 October 2026. https://creditorwatch.com.au/business-risk-index

carsales Business, September 2026 VFACTS vehicle sales. https://business.carsales.com.au/news-room/news/vfacts-september-2026-ford-ranger-leads-four-way-race/

Electric Vehicle Council, September 2026 vehicle sales release, 8 October 2026. https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/media-releases/battery-evs-hold-top-sales-spot-for-second-consecutive-month/

Indicative vehicle fuel consumption: RedBook / manufacturer specifications; alternative Honda consumption scenario based on an Australian road-test figure. Fuel prices are illustrative assumptions.

Disclaimer: General market commentary only. This article does not constitute financial, credit, tax or legal advice. Individual circumstances and applicable regulatory obligations must be considered.